Leading indicators do not point to a rapid recovery. IHS is therefore forecasting a 0.6 % decline in GDP in the current year. In 2025, output is likely to increase by 0.8 %. Inflation, as measured by the annual change of the consumer price index, should fall to 3.0 % this year and to 2.4 % next year. The unemployment rate is likely to rise to 7.0 % and 7.2 % respectively. IHS expects the general government budget deficit, according to the Maastricht Treaty, to rise to 3.5 % of GDP this year and to remain at approximately that level next year without consolidation measures.